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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Northern Illinois

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:241.0
Current RPI:241
Expected SOS:149
Current SOS:149
Current Record:11-19
Expected Record:11-19
Current Conf Record:6-13
Expected Conf Record:6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-4
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:258
Expected OOC SOS:308


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
11-19241.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Green Bay (303.0)HorzH85-65W100%0.0
11-20Penn (112.0)IvyN80-93L0%0.0
11-21Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAN77-67L0%0.0
11-22Manhattan (228.0)MAACN70-68W100%0.0
11-29Milwaukee (231.0)HorzH62-75L0%0.0
12-2Chicago St. (335.0)WACA77-95W100%0.0
12-4Iowa St. (144.0)B12A94-80L0%0.0
12-9Central Connecticut (263.0)NECH61-55W100%0.0
12-18Marquette (58.0)BEA79-70L0%0.0
12-21Illinois Chicago (236.0)HorzH69-63W100%0.0
12-29Iowa (157.0)B10A98-75L0%0.0
1-2Kent St. (154.0)MACH75-61W100%0.0
1-6Ohio (204.0)MACA78-68L0%0.0
1-9Bowling Green (193.0)MACA66-57L0%0.0
1-13Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH72-66W100%0.0
1-16Buffalo (25.0)MACA95-67L0%0.0
1-20Akron (227.0)MACA82-67L0%0.0
1-23Bowling Green (193.0)MACH93-62W100%0.0
1-27Western Michigan (177.0)MACA79-72L0%0.0
1-30Central Michigan (167.0)MACA81-67L0%0.0
2-3Miami OH (159.0)MACH65-81L0%0.0
2-6Toledo (75.0)MACA82-77L0%0.0
2-10Buffalo (25.0)MACH90-88W100%0.0
2-13Central Michigan (167.0)MACH72-80L0%0.0
2-17Western Michigan (177.0)MACH75-67W100%0.0
2-20Ball St. (126.0)MACA77-68L0%0.0
2-24Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA82-53L0%0.0
2-27Toledo (75.0)MACH67-97L0%0.0
3-2Ball St. (126.0)MACH66-65W100%0.0
3-5Kent St. (154.0)MACA61-59L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Northern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Northern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Northern IllinoisMAC26.2426.2433.6233.62-8.60-8.60
ToledoMAC4.234.2364.5264.521.231.23
Kent St.MAC4.194.1948.3948.39-0.14-0.14
BuffaloMAC4.194.1977.4277.422.302.30
Central MichiganMAC4.194.1950.0050.000.000.00
Western MichiganMAC4.164.1650.0050.000.000.00
Eastern MichiganMAC4.164.1659.2659.260.770.77
Ball St.MAC4.144.1458.6258.620.710.71
Bowling GreenMAC4.114.1146.4346.43-0.29-0.29
AkronMAC2.582.5840.0040.00-0.52-0.52
Miami OHMAC2.552.5543.3343.33-0.34-0.34
OhioMAC2.492.4941.3841.38-0.43-0.43
MilwaukeeHorz1.891.8946.6746.67-0.13-0.13
Green BayHorz1.831.8334.4834.48-0.57-0.57
Illinois ChicagoHorz1.801.8051.7251.720.060.06
Chicago St.WAC1.771.773.453.45-1.65-1.65
IowaB101.721.7240.6240.62-0.32-0.32
Iowa St.B121.721.7240.0040.00-0.34-0.34
PennIvy1.721.7273.3373.330.800.80
MarquetteBE1.691.6958.0658.060.270.27
Central ConnecticutNEC1.671.6745.1645.16-0.16-0.16
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.671.6729.6329.63-0.68-0.68
ManhattanMAAC1.671.6746.6746.67-0.11-0.11
OaklandHorz0.410.4157.5857.580.060.06
Cleveland St.Horz0.370.3732.3532.35-0.13-0.13
Wright St.Horz0.350.3571.8871.880.150.15
DetroitHorz0.300.3020.0020.00-0.18-0.18
IUPUIHorz0.220.2232.1432.14-0.08-0.08
Youngstown St.Horz0.220.2220.0020.00-0.13-0.13
Northern KentuckyHorz0.160.1668.9768.970.060.06
UMKCWAC0.160.1627.5927.59-0.07-0.07
Jackson St.SWAC0.160.1633.3333.33-0.05-0.05
DePaulBE0.160.1635.4835.48-0.05-0.05
SyracuseACC0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
DaytonA100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.140.1458.0658.060.020.02
MarshallCUSA0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
WisconsinB100.130.1345.4545.45-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.130.1379.4179.410.080.08
Old DominionCUSA0.120.1278.1278.120.060.06
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
South CarolinaSEC0.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
Appalachian St.SB0.110.1141.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TulsaAmer0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
IonaMAAC0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IndianaB100.110.1151.6151.610.000.00
HarvardIvy0.110.1156.6756.670.010.01
OklahomaB120.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.110.1184.3884.380.070.07
Saint Joseph'sA100.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
VillanovaBE0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
CornellIvy0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
KansasB120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
NiagaraMAAC0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
ValparaisoMVC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0930.0030.00-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.090.0931.2531.25-0.03-0.03
FIUCUSA0.090.0937.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.090.0964.5264.520.020.02
HowardMEAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Texas TechB120.080.0872.7372.730.040.04
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.080.0883.3383.330.060.06
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DartmouthIvy0.080.0823.0823.08-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.080.0824.2424.24-0.04-0.04
Notre DameACC0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Fort WayneSum0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MissouriSEC0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Southern UtahBSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
FairfieldMAAC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
MonmouthMAAC0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Western IllinoisSum0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
MinnesotaB100.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
BrownIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PurdueB100.080.0882.3582.350.050.05
LIU BrooklynNEC0.080.0851.5251.520.000.00
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
WagnerNEC0.080.0870.0070.000.030.03
CanisiusMAAC0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.080.0812.5012.50-0.06-0.06
Ohio St.B100.080.0875.0075.000.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.080.0880.0080.000.050.05
CharlotteCUSA0.060.0617.8617.86-0.04-0.04
North TexasCUSA0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RiceCUSA0.060.0617.2417.24-0.04-0.04
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.060.0644.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
CampbellBSth0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.060.0665.6265.620.020.02
IdahoBSky0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Saint LouisA100.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.060.0651.7251.720.000.00
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
South DakotaSum0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.060.0654.8454.840.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.060.0610.7110.71-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.060.0643.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.04-0.04
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
BaylorB120.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.030.03
ColumbiaIvy0.050.0526.9226.92-0.02-0.02
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
BryantNEC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.030.0376.6776.670.020.02
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.030.039.689.68-0.02-0.02
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
ClemsonACC0.030.0371.8871.880.010.01
Illinois St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
KentuckySEC0.030.0370.5970.590.010.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.030.0351.6151.610.000.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
PresbyterianBSth0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
ChattanoogaSC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DavidsonA100.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
Holy CrossPat0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
NavyPat0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
USCP120.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
Grambling St.SWAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01